This Tuesday's election - barring a cold front in Hell - Beto O'Rourke will represent El Paso in Congress. But the preciptating event that will lead to Beto's victory this Tuesday did not happen this year, or last year, or even the last decade. It happened long before that...it happened during the Vietnam War era.
When O'Rourke first entered the El Paso political scene, it was State Sen. Jose Rodriguez who was seen as El Paso's next congressman. It was Rodriguez that would have either challenged Reyes or waited until Reyes finally retired. Reyes was always vulenerable to a good solid candidate, the problem though was that the only good solid candidate during this period was Rodriguez. Rodriguez's problem was sorta a not well kept secret in these parts - his military service, more specifically lack thereof. While Reyes was in Vietnam, Rodriguez was in Washington attending law school. In a strong military community such as El Paso, Rodriguez was never going to be able to challenge Reyes.
So Rodriguez quitely accepted a State Senate...actually not quite. Rodriguez was sidelined.
Enter Eliot Shapleigh. Shapleigh, for probably a myriad of reasons, decided to retire from the Texas Senate. At that point, it was Norma Chavez who was making an early splash. Norma herself did not have much of choice after having a PR disaster of a session. Either she ran on the offensive for an open Senate seat, or ran on defensive for her then House seat. Shapleigh was not going to let Norma have his old seat.
Beto would have probably made a better State Senator than Congressman. In the Texas Senate, you are 1 out of 31. In Congress, you are 1 out of 435. In Congress, it is all about the long game (which is why some political stars try to avoid Congress). If you want to get things done, you need seniority. To get seniority, you need to play the game for a long time. Beto could very well be planning a long game, or he could have other plans. Certainly being in Congress does not stop you from moving up the political ladder, but it does make it a bit more difficult (Beto could be statewide candidate). But Shapleigh could not have got Beto to run for State Senate because at that point the election would have been faction driven, and there would have been a good chance Chavez could have made it into a runoff with other candidates running - besides her and Beto.
Enter sidelined Jose Rodriguez. Jose Rodriguez, although he was labeled a "Shapelighite", he was still well-liked by most people. Liked enough that nobody else wanted to run for a rare open State Senate seat. With Rodriguez throwing his hat in the ring, Chavez quickly bowed out. Rodriguez coasted to victory. Now, a strong candidate - without a connection to Vietnam - could run against Reyes.
One did and won.