So what is happening in the Lower Valley?
Will the gay-for-pay candidate, Mary Gonzalez, hold on to her seat?
Let us take a look back Mary's previous primary run-ins since taking office:
Mary Gonzalez 68.91
Rey Sepulveda 31.09
Mary Gonzalez 57.92
Chente Quintanilla 42.08
If there is a trend, that trend does not look good for Mary.
Her 2014 opponent did not have much cash, and had his own baggage.
Her 2016 opponent did have cash, but had baggage.
Her 2018 opponent? Her opponent has the cash and none of the baggage.
Oh, and this time, her opponent is a woman.
A woman that has a base strongly behind her.
This is a shock to folks in Austin, but a lot of people in Mary's district frankly do not like her.
As much as everyone in Austin wants to pin this Marisa Marquez, when all is said and down, it is Mary's own constituents, not Marisa, that vote against her.
But it is hard to get a good feel on the race given the district is both suburban and rural.
And within "the rural" you have different communities that each have their own reasons to like and dislike Mary.
Again if the past is any indication of a trend, I would say this is a toss-up.
And it may come down to whether or not Mary's opponent can get her base and then some out to vote.