With Norma Chavez in the race, Veronica Escobar is probably still shitting a brick, while Dori Fenenbock probably popped open a bottle.
Now I am sure there are some in Escobar's camp that think Chavez is a Fenenbock plant.
But that is highly unlikely.
It is too risky.
If Fenenbock gets into a run-off with Chavez, I doubt Chavez would just bow-out.
Chavez would have just as good of a chance - I would argue better - as Dori to win.
Let's face it, Chavez has a good chance of making it into a runoff. If she did not, nobody would be spending money all of sudden on push polls. Whether they are Dori-friendly or Escobar-friendly PACs.
So what does Dori need to do?
Besides Norma being in the race, the other thing Dori has going for her will be the lack in interest from El Paso Republicans in the Republican primary. I cannot imagine El Paso Republicans being all that hung up about who should be Land Commissioner. They are probably a lot more excited about making a difference in this congressional race. And we know El Paso Republicans can make a difference in a congressional Democratic primary. Just ask Beto O'Rourke.
Now Escobar and her surrogates do not look too smart spending their time bashing Republicans.
But short of winning outright, if Dori is going to be in a run-off, she better hope it is with Escobar.
While technically this is an open seat, we all know this is supposed to be Escobar's seat.
If Escobar goes into a run-off it is because the majority of voters are not happy with Escobar.
Not saying that Dori will definitely beat Escobar in a run-off, but her odds are better against Escobar than with Chavez.
The good thing for her is that her race is short. She played it smart by filing at the last moment thereby considerably reducing the amount of money she would have need to raise if she had announced earlier.
She does not needed to raise much.
She just needs to raise enough.
Now, she probably will not raise enough locally, but perhaps nationally...given who her campaign treasurer is?
I can only assume "Huerta, Dolores" is THE Dolores Huerta.
And if that is the case...
If for a second there you did not think Chavez was serious about her race, you need to think again.
You know who has the most to lose in this congressional race?
If your answer is "Veronica Escobar", you're wrong.
It is Cesar Blanco.
If Escobar loses, Blanco will live with the regret.
A veteran with DC experience who is generally liked by all Democratic locals passed up this open seat for whatever reason.
Maybe he wants to run for State Senate once Jose Rodriguez leaves.
But now he needs Escobar to win.
Blanco will have to get more involved than he already is.
Escobar is scattered-brain and getting bad advice from her blue falcon, Susie Byrd.
I know the thinking is PAC money will pour-in for Escobar, but that was when it was a "one-person race".
If I were a PAC that wanted to support Escobar and I see what the race looks like now, why pour money into this quagmire? There are plenty of other races across the country where seats can be flipped, and things look a little less politically-complicated.
Maybe that is where Blanco tries to work his magic again?
I don't know.
I just hope Blanco has a list of favors to call-in should his candidate win.
Look, I may end up eating crow in a few months, but I'm gonna marinate the shit out of that crow with sour grapes until that motherphucker tastes guuuuud.
Your former County Judge Veronica Escobar is learning a rather ugly truth.
She just ain't all that popular.
If she were, no white woman from the West Side who have thought about challenging her.
If that were not enough of a sign of Escobar's unpopularity, my former employer, Norma Chavez jumps in the race.
Now, Escobar could have overcome this unpopularity had she not spent several months dicking around. By that I mean, the day that Beto O'Rourke had announced he was running for Senate, Escobar should have announced she was running for Congress. But no. She tried to be coy and cute. Between the time of O'Rourke's announcement and her own announcement, Escobar had an opponent that raised some serious cash.
And now, Escobar has an opponent, that has some serious name ID.
Yes, in my not so humble opinion, Chavez has a shot.
You can talk about Chavez's negatives, but at the end of the day Chavez never voted to increase your property taxes or vote herself a pay raise.
That and Chavez ain't married to a guy who earns his paycheck from deporting Mexicans.
As much as Escobar says, "What does my husband have to do with anything?", ultimately Escobar does spend that deportation money.
Chavez can paint her opponents as wealthy out-of-touch West Side and Central residents, while she can run as the "Woman of the People" candidate.
So what does Chavez need to do?
She just needs to get into a run-off with Fenenbock.
After that, Chavez will be able to tell Woody Hunt and Paul Foster, "Chupame la verga, pendejos."